It’s been two years since the crisis, and this crisis is changing the world deeply.

　　Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, February 24th-Today, the crisis in Ukraine has escalated for two years. At present, the situation in Ukraine is still complicated, and both sides of the conflict have paid a huge price, while some western countries continue to "fire the fire." Under the seesaw, the prospect of peace talks is still dim, and how this conflict will develop and when it will end is still unknown.

　　The war was deadlocked in the seesaw conflict.

　　In the past year, the front line of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict was fierce, and the two sides fought in Kupyansk, Hongliman, Donetsk, Zaporoge and Hellson. In May last year, the Russian side claimed to control Aljomovsk, an important town in the Donetsk region (Uzbekistan called Bakhmut).

　　In the early morning of the 17th of this month, the new commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, Sergey, announced that the Ukrainian army would be evacuated from Avdeev, eastern Ukraine. Russian Defense Minister shoigu reported to Russian President Vladimir Putin on the 20th that defeating Ukrainian troops in Avdeev was an important victory for Russian troops. According to the analysis, this is the biggest change in the front line of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict after the Russian side took control of Aljomovsk.

　　In addition to fighting on the front line, Russia and Ukraine use long-range attacks to attack their respective rear areas equally fiercely. Since last year, the Ukrainian army has stepped up its efforts to use weapons such as drones and multi-barrel rockets to attack areas in Russia. In the past year, the Russian army has continuously used high-precision long-range weapons to intensively attack military production enterprises and ammunition warehouses in Uzbekistan.

　　The economy has been hit hard and people’s livelihood has been damaged.

　　In the past two years, the United States and the West have imposed unprecedented sanctions on Russia, which has caused drastic fluctuations in the Russian financial market, rapid depreciation of the ruble, rising prices and intensified instability in the supply chain. However, with the Russian side taking a series of countermeasures, the Russian economy is generally stable.

　　According to data released by the Russian Statistical Office in early February this year, Russia’s economic growth rate reached 3.6% in 2023, higher than the global average. But at the same time, the decision of the Russian central bank to maintain the benchmark interest rate of 16% this month also shows that the pressure of stabilizing prices, ensuring supply and reducing inflation in Russia is still great, and the sustainable growth of the Russian economy still faces challenges.

   

On February 28, 2022, citizens purchased in a supermarket in Lviv, Ukraine. Xinhua News Agency reporter Chen Wenxian photo

　　In contrast, Ukraine’s economy has been hit hard and people’s livelihood difficulties have intensified. According to data from the National Bank of Ukraine, the budget deficit in Ukraine reached a record high in 2023, equivalent to 20% of the country’s GDP.

　　Ukrainian Prime Minister Viktor megal said in an interview with the media a few days ago that since the conflict with Russia, the total economic output of Ukraine has dropped by 30% and 3.5 million jobs have been lost. The long-term conflict has also caused great damage to the people’s livelihood of the two countries, causing a large number of casualties and damaged infrastructure, which has continuously affected the normal life of local residents.

　　Hairdressing War, Financial and European Economy Suffered

　　During the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the United States made a fortune in war, while Europe’s economy suffered from self-attack, and the differences within the EU over aiding Ukraine deepened.

　　The Wall Street Journal website recently reported that in the past two years, orders for weapons and ammunition in the US defense industry have increased greatly. According to Federal Reserve data, the industrial output value of the US defense and aerospace sectors has increased by 17.5% since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. An official in Biden’s administration said that of the $95 billion supplementary defense budget, $60.7 billion was earmarked for Ukraine, and 64% of it will actually flow back to the US defense industry. European countries have also become "big customers" of American arms.

　　In addition, the interruption of Russian natural gas supply has stimulated European demand for American LNG. It is estimated that by 2030, the export volume of liquefied natural gas in the United States will nearly double, of which about two thirds will be exported to Europe.

　　Different from the economic and geopolitical benefits obtained by the United States from the war, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict brought a huge impact to Europe. The delay of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, coupled with Europe blindly following the United States to impose economic sanctions on Russia, led to soaring energy prices, high inflation, huge losses for enterprises, serious shrinkage of people’s real wages and decline in purchasing power. The European economy fell into a quagmire of low growth last year.

　　In terms of aid to Ukraine, differences within the EU have deepened and tears have intensified. Due to insufficient production capacity, the EU admitted that it could not deliver 1 million artillery shells to Ukraine on schedule. At the beginning of this month, many countries in the European Union put pressure on Hungary, which is also a member country, and finally passed the decision to provide 50 billion euros in aid to Ukraine in the next four years.

　　The road to peace in the west is long.

　　The call of the international community for a peaceful solution to the Ukrainian crisis has a long history. However, judging from the analysis of the current situation, it is very difficult for Russia and Ukraine to restart peace talks.

　　On the one hand, the positions of the Russian and Ukrainian governments are sharply opposed, and the peace talks lack sufficient political foundation. On the other hand, the west’s "pouring fuel on the fire" undoubtedly makes the hope of peace even more slim. In particular, the United States’ constant fire has led to a protracted conflict. The United States is the main funder of Ukraine, and the European side has repeatedly stated that it will continue to assist Ukraine. Western countries are still sparing no effort to provoke regional instability. On January 24th, NATO launched a military exercise codenamed "Firm Defender 2024". This is NATO’s largest military exercise since the end of the Cold War.

　　As the conflict entered its third year, Jan Aberg, founder of the Swedish Transnational Peace and Future Research Foundation, said in an exclusive interview with Xinhua News Agency recently that the responses made by NATO and the European Union so far are not conducive to ending the conflict. Both sides should hold a rational and honest attitude, stop military assistance, promote a ceasefire, and reach a settlement through non-military, negotiation, and the United Nations and OSCE carrying out peacekeeping missions to end the conflict. (Reporter: Huang He, Li Dongxu, Zhao Bing, Deng Xianlai, Li Jizhi, Fu Yiming, Liu Yuxuan, Ji Jiaxin (internship) and Liu Zihe (internship); Video: Sun Shuo; Editor: Diao Ze, Wang Fengfeng, Cheng Dayu, Wang Kewen, Liang Shanggang, Indifferent)