Russian circles have firm confidence in China’s economy.

　　[Special attention]

　　"The fundamentals of China’s economy and the long-term positive trend will not change because of this epidemic."

　　Russian circles have firm confidence in China’s economy.

　　Guangming Daily correspondent in Moscow Han Xianyang

　　Like the international community, the Russian government, academic circles and the media have evaluated and predicted the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on China and the world economy. The mainstream view of Russian society is that the epidemic will have a certain impact on the global economy, but Russia has firm confidence in the bright future of China’s economy.

　　"China’s economic vitality will be gradually released."

　　Russian epidemiologists generally believe that the COVID-19 epidemic is unlikely to last for a long time. One of the key factors is that China still has strong social mobilization ability in emergency situations, such as strict traffic control in cities with a population of 10 million, resolutely curbing rumors, mobilizing national medical personnel and allocating medical resources. Experts believe that from April, people will no longer have to worry about the COVID-19 epidemic. This judgment also gives most Russian economists confidence that the fundamentals and long-term positive trend of China’s economy will not be changed because of this epidemic.

　　Earlier this month, the international news agency "Russia Today" held a round table with the theme of "COVID-19: its influence on China and the world economy". Maslov, a professor in the Department of World Economics and Politics of the Russian Higher School of Economics, pointed out that the leaders and government of China have taken resolute and forceful actions, and the epidemic situation has been strictly controlled. Because there are more holidays in January traditionally, China’s GDP usually drops by 0.2% ~ 0.3% month-on-month. This time, it may drop a little more due to the epidemic. Ostrovschi, director of the China Center for Economic and Social Research of the Far East Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, believes that it is feasible to compare the current situation with the SARS epidemic in 2002-2003. He recalled that in 2003, economic experts predicted that China’s economy would experience a serious recession, but by the end of that year, China’s GDP growth rate had reached 9.8%. In 2019, China’s annual GDP increased by 6.1% compared with the previous year. Ostrovschi said that China’s economy is quite dynamic. By the end of this year, GDP may still maintain similar growth, and it will decline in the first quarter, but this is seasonal, and China’s economic vitality will be gradually released. Grigorev, chief adviser to the head of the Russian Federal Government Analysis Center, also believes that the epidemic will not seriously affect China’s economic development from the current financial and securities development in China.

　　On the 12th, RIA Novosti published an article entitled "China takes measures to restore economic vitality under the epidemic", saying that the China government has taken measures to prevent and control the epidemic on the one hand, and resumed work and production on the other, which once again proves China’s strong mobilization ability and confidence in overcoming the epidemic. The article emphasizes that the fundamentals of China’s economy and the long-term positive trend will not change because of this epidemic. The article also said that many large enterprises in China actively participated in the "epidemic" of the economic war and shared the difficulties with small and medium-sized enterprises. For example, Lenovo group provides short-term job opportunities to help small and medium-sized enterprises tide over difficult times; Alibaba Group has taken measures such as subsidizing express logistics and reducing the operating expenses of platform merchants to jointly fight the epidemic; Huawei Cloud Database and Huawei Cloud WeLink jointly guarantee the "cloud office" of enterprises.

　　The impact of the epidemic on the Russian economy is "negligible"

　　Nabiulina, governor of the Russian Federal Central Bank, said on the 7th that the impact of the current epidemic on the Russian economy is negligible. She said that the COVID-19 epidemic has affected the economy of a single country as well as the world economy. "If we talk about Russia, the impact on our economy at present is negligible.". Gref, president of the Russian Federal Savings Bank, Russia’s largest bank, believes that if the spread of the virus is effectively controlled in Russia, the impact on the Russian economy "will not be great".

　　In response to the decline in WTI crude oil futures prices, Russian Energy Minister Novak said that the COVID-19 epidemic is expected to reduce global crude oil demand by 150,000 to 200,000 barrels per day, but there is no indication that China’s demand for Russian oil and natural gas has declined.

　　Glaziyev, former assistant to the Russian President and Minister of Macroscopies and Integration of the Eurasian Economic Commission, wrote that the epidemic has troubled China and the world, and will also have a short-term impact on the international community. But for Russia, this epidemic will not have much impact on Russia-China cooperation. He said that at present, relevant Russian medical departments and enterprises are processing orders from China and providing all kinds of protective equipment. Russia and China have also cooperated on the research and development of antiviral vaccines, and flights of major Russian airlines to China are also running as usual.

　　Hilo, deputy general manager of "Russian Railway" company, said that the import and export goods of Sino-Russian railways increased by more than 10% in February this year. He said: "So far, we have not seen any decrease in the freight volume to and from China, and even the foreign trade freight volume has increased in the first half of February, with exports increasing by nearly 13% and imports increasing by 24%."

　　China’s COVID-19 epidemic will reach its peak in the first quarter of 2020, and its negative impact on the global economy, including Russia, will be relatively limited, according to the assessment of the Eurasian Economic Commission quoted by Russian Parliament.

　　Russia actively promotes pragmatic cooperation between Russia and China.

　　In the fight against the COVID-19 epidemic, Russia has always stood by China’s side and shared difficulties with China. Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly stated that Russia will fully support China in fighting the epidemic.

　　In an article entitled "Share weal and woe: Russian people fully support China in overcoming the epidemic", Russian Ambassador to China Denisov was quoted as saying that the COVID-19 epidemic will not have a negative impact on Russia-China cooperation in political and economic fields.

　　The Russian Customs Service announced on the 11th that the trade volume between Russia and China reached US$ 110.9 billion in 2019, an increase of 2.5%, reaching a record high. In 2019, China’s total exports to Russia increased by 3.6% to US$ 54.1 billion, while Russian exports to China increased by 1.6% to US$ 56.8 billion. China’s share in Russian trade rose from 15.7% to 16.6%. In the face of the COVID-19 epidemic, the economic departments of the Russian government are making active efforts to achieve the goal of increasing the bilateral trade volume to $200 billion in the next few years set by the heads of state of Russia and China.

　　Evtukhov, Russian Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade, said recently that the reserves of light industry such as textiles and auto parts imported from China can last until the beginning of March. "There is no panic and the situation will not develop dramatically.".

　　On the 13th, Boer Mistrot, president of Russia’s "Natural Gas Industry" export company, said that Russia is still discussing with China the "Siberian Power 2" project and the supply of gas to China from the Russian Far East. She said that Russian and Chinese partners can work by video link. "Don’t worry, the talks are still going on." It is understood that in 2015, Gazprom and PetroChina signed an agreement to supply gas to China through the "Siberian Power 2" project, and planned to build a new pipeline on the basis of the existing pipeline from West Siberia to Novosibirsk, extending to the border of China.