Zhongxin Jingwei Client April 13th (Roddy Wu Yihan) In 2019, A shares seemed to be caught off guard and ushered in a "bull market".
Kweichow Moutai, the most expensive A-share stock, started from 600 yuan and watched it climb to the peak of 1,000 yuan.
Last year, brokerage economists who shouted "the capital market is winter" turned around and began to hold high the banner of the bull market;
Retail investors who have turned off the lights and eaten noodles for nearly three years have recovered their forgotten securities account passwords, and more new investors are either opening accounts or on their way to open them.
There are indications that the A-share market is welcoming the rainbow after the storm. Jingwei Jun interviewed four investors. Some of them have been hesitant to wait and see Man Cang’s empty space. Some of them have finally tasted the daily limit. Some of them have "earned the down payment on the house" since they bought at a low point, and some have successfully cultivated themselves into "stock market reverse indicators". Let’s see if there is any shadow of you.
The bear market outperformed the broader market, but the bull market stepped empty.
On the last trading day before the Spring Festival in 2019, Yu Yi sold all his shares. At that time, he was relieved and a little smug. In the depressed stock market in 2018, he won a lot of profits and successfully outperformed the market with his short-term operation of fast-forward and fast-out.
"During the period before the Spring Festival, the stock market rebounded, because the stock market at that time had been in a downturn for nearly a year, so I judged that the stock market would probably pull back after the Spring Festival, and it just happened that the Spring Festival also needed money, so I simply cleared my position and spent the next year with peace of mind." And when Yu Yi spent the New Year with peace of mind, A shares started.
After the Spring Festival, A shares seem to switch to bull market mode overnight. Since before the Spring Festival, the market index has risen by more than 20%, and many stocks have doubled. During this period, I didn’t buy a share.
▲ Recent trend of Shanghai Composite Index. Screenshot source: wind
Yu Yi said that at the beginning, he didn’t care about the rise of A-shares. At that time, he was still immersed in the thinking of "bear market", thinking that A-shares would be adjusted back at any time, ready to wait until then to buy stocks, and earn a little money by fast-forward and fast-out. Yu Yi’s idea lasted until February 25th, when the market rose by 5.60%. Yu Yi’s classmates exposed their profits in the group one after another, and he realized that he was empty.
However, even if he realized that he had stepped into the air, Yu Yi didn’t have the courage to enter the stock market and watched A shares rise all the way. "I started trading stocks in the early stage of the bull market in 2015. At that time, almost all the stocks I bought rose. I once thought that I had a unique investment talent. Later, I learned that when the bull market was in progress, every stockholder was a stock god."
The stock market crash in 2015 and the bear market in the next three years not only made Yu Yi turn from profit to loss, but also made him extremely cautious in stock trading, and almost completely disbelieved in the research reports of various brokers. In this way, it was not until 2018 that he began to slowly form his own set of "bear market stock trading method".
"In fact, I chose a few stocks that I have observed for a long time and performed well. Every time I reached a low position that I thought, I bought it and sold it at a high position. I went back and forth in these stocks, and after one operation, I slowly made up for the previous losses, and there was still a surplus." However, it is also this set of cautious operation methods that let Yu Yi step out of the whole round of soaring market.
"At that time, I just entered the bull market. Some people in the stock bar once said that only the investors who have experienced the two-cycle transformation of cattle to bears and bears to cattle are really mature. At that time, I was extremely confident and thought this was nonsense. But now I really understand the speaker’s state of mind. Compared with 2019, which is completely empty, I suddenly miss 2018, which can fast-forward and make a little money. "
The bull market earned a down payment for buying a house in its hometown in January.
"When my ex-boyfriend, who said that he was old and dead, asked me if I had any stock recommendations, I felt it was time to peak." After 90, Xiaofei began to contact stock investment after graduation, and has experienced a cycle of bull and bear. Because of his experience as a stock analyst in private equity funds, Xiaofei is regarded as a "walking stock guide" in the circle of friends and relatives around him.
After the Shanghai Composite Index rose by nearly 700 points in just a few months, the wealth effect of A shares is becoming prominent, and some analysts even called this bull market "an opportunity to change fate".
Xiao Fei clearly feels that the scene in 2015 is reappearing. On the one hand, there are more and more people calling to consult Xiaofei about buying stocks, such as primary school teachers who haven’t seen each other for several years, and distant relatives who can’t touch each other … … Overnight, Xiao Fei became a celebrity in the circle of friends; On the other hand, there are more and more sales calls to recommend stocks and fund-matching, and sometimes "can pick up dozens" a day.
Driven by the fiery market of the stock market, new investors ran into the market. According to the data released by Shenzhen Stock Exchange recently, the number of new accounts opened in Shenzhen in March was 2.99 million, a sharp increase of 109% compared with 1.43 million in February.
However, in the eyes of some old investors, this is precisely the time to be vigilant. As Buffett said, be greedy when others are afraid, and be afraid when others are greedy. Xiao Fei, who has always boasted himself as a hardcore fan of Buffett, started his own road of gradually lightening his position after the stock index rose.
"I feel lucky enough to be able to enter the market at a low point. When everyone is enthusiastic and everyone around me is entering the market, I think it is time to gradually exit." In this bull market, Xiaofei has made nearly 50% of the profits. Because of the large market value of his positions, 50% of the profits are small enough for Xiaofei to pay the down payment for a house in his hometown in a second-tier city.
▲ Screenshot of Xiaofei’s stock account
"After selling the stock in my hand, I plan to buy a house in my hometown first. After all, everyone who made money after the last round of stock market bull market went to buy a house. I am afraid that the property market will soar again, so I have to get on the bus in advance." Xiao Fei said.
However, she also admitted that she didn’t go out in time when the bulls and bears switched in the last round, which led to her heavy losses. After the pairwise balance, the annualized rate of return was not so impressive, "mainly earning a heartbeat."
Secondary new shareholders: the first time to experience the daily limit
A-shares refer to the newly listed stocks as sub-new shares. According to this statement, Wang Xiaosheng should be regarded as a sub-new shareholder. He entered the stock market in January 2018 with a stock age of 1.25 years.
Before the Spring Festival, Wang Xiaosheng, who also felt that the stock market would be adjusted after the holiday, also chose to clear out and leave, so he missed the rising market of A shares in the first week after the holiday. However, after a short analysis, Wang Xiaosheng quickly got on the bus, and so far, his income has exceeded 20%.
Wang Xiaosheng’s courage to enter decisively comes from his confidence in his own judgment. After the A-share holiday rose for nearly a week, Wang Xiaosheng made three analyses on the stock market. First, the upward trend of A-shares remained unchanged. Second, the Sino-US trade negotiations revealed a good signal at that time. Third, many research reports of brokerage institutions were talking about the spring market.
"Keeping up with this wave of market also allowed me to get the first daily limit in my life. I have been paying attention to ZTE since last year. At the time of the daily limit, my relatives and friends boasted a lot, and I felt that the daily limit was also an affirmation of my stock selection ability. At present, I continue to hold it, and I have recently added it. " Wang Xiaosheng said.
Wang Xiaosheng has not experienced losses. At the beginning of entering the market, Wang Xiaosheng made a slight gain. However, with the weakening of A shares after March 2018, Wang Xiaosheng also turned from winning to losing, and the losses of some stocks once reached 20%. At that time, Wang Xiaosheng regretted that he didn’t leave early, while hesitating whether to cut the meat. However, as a "sub-new shareholder", Wang Xiaosheng couldn’t bear to cut the meat and sell shares. Since then, he has waited until the loss-making stocks have become profitable before selling them.
For his own experience in stock trading for more than a year, Wang Xiaosheng’s deepest feeling is that the stock market has changed too much and he needs to grasp the right time to leave. "Last year, I lost a lot because of various black swan incidents, otherwise my income would be better. From this year’s point of view, I judge that the trend of the broader market is a rebound rather than a bull market, so I will remain calm about the future and will not invest all my funds in the stock market, but wait for the signal of economic fundamentals before making a decision. "
Stock speculation into a "reverse indicator"
In this bull market, there is a popular joke to describe the irrational pursuit of some concept stocks by shareholders:
Dongfang Communication: We have nothing to do with 5G … …
Shareholders: Shut up, you have!
Shibei Gaoxin: I am a real estate agent … …
Shareholders: Shut up, you are the boss of venture capital!
Great wisdom: I don’t want to be the boss of securities firms … …
Shareholders: Shut up, you think!
Xin Wufeng: Our company is losing money this year!
Shareholders: Shut up and turn a profit immediately!
Seeing these "pseudo-concept stocks" daily limit, Betty Wong couldn’t help but "one’s fingers itch" to buy Dongfang Communication at a high level in 40 yuan, expecting Dongfang Communication to soar to the sky through the wind of 5G. Unfortunately, the "myth" of China Eastern Communications seems to have come to an end after it was bought in Betty Wong. As of Friday’s close, Wang Yuedan’s stock loss was above 30%.
"The index has risen so much, but the stock selection is still green. This is a more sad story than stepping on the air." According to Betty Wong, in her past investment experience, she often followed the trend to buy stocks, but she often "fell as soon as she bought them, and rose as soon as she sold them", which has become a "reverse indicator". In fact, chasing up and killing down can sum up almost 80% of small and medium investors in the market, and Betty Wong is just one of them.
So far, Betty Wong’s account still contains stocks bought with the wind in the last bull market, and most of them have lost more than 50%. Even though most stocks in this bull market have doubled, these stocks are still "firm" and lie in a straight line, showing no signs of rising.
"If someone does the reverse operation according to my operation, he will definitely make money." Betty Wong said with a wry smile.
She believes that most investors, including her, have not done the most basic research on the companies they buy, and more often they listen to gossip, so it is not surprising to lose money.
Of course, Betty Wong also made money, and sometimes when he was lucky, he caught a daily limit stock, and the money rose even more than a month’s salary.
"When you look at that number, your mentality will change, and you will feel that your current job is meaningless. You have worked hard for a month to earn so little money, and you are not very concerned about your work. When you lose money, your mood is very poor, which also affects your work. Therefore, I think young people still need to stock less, and it is serious to work hard. " Betty Wong said.
The iron law of "making one profit, drawing two draws and losing seven" is established to some extent. The stock market is risky, so you should be cautious when entering the market. As a stockholder, do you see your own shadow in these four people? What new stories are there in stock trading this year? Welcome to leave a message in the comment area!
(In order to protect the privacy of the interviewee, Yu Yi, Xiao Fei, Wang Xiaosheng and Wang Yuemei are pseudonyms.)
(This article does not constitute any investment advice)
(Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
